Theo Capital
Theo Capital / Methodology

How Theo Capital works

Theo Capital combines valuation, business outlook, market expectations, macro conditions, statistics and sentiment to explain whether a stock's current price looks justified.

Important: Theo Capital does not provide buy, sell or hold recommendations. The platform is designed to provide educational, factual and model-based analysis. It should not be interpreted as investment advice.

The core question

Theo Capital is built around one central question:

Is the current stock price justified by fundamentals, expectations and market conditions?

Each module looks at this question from a different angle. Some modules focus on the individual company, some on the market regime, and some on investor behavior.

01Market overview

Dashboard

Gives users a quick overview of the current market environment and the most important signals inside Theo Capital.

The Dashboard is the starting point. It summarizes the market backdrop, key indicators and current opportunity setup before the user looks at an individual stock.

Helps answer

What is the current market environment?

02Single-stock analysis

Analyze

Analyzes an individual stock using valuation, business outlook, risk, confidence and macro context.

Analyze is the core stock engine. It helps users understand whether a stock looks cheap, expensive or fairly valued — and whether the business outlook supports the current price.

Helps answer

Is the current stock price justified?

03Factual model rankings

Daily Signals

Scans a stock universe every day and ranks the strongest and weakest model setups based on Theo Capital's calculated signals.

Daily Signals is not a buy or sell list. It is a factual, model-based ranking that highlights where valuation, quality, momentum, risk and macro conditions create interesting setups.

Helps answer

Which stocks currently stand out based on the model?

04Price movement explanation

Price Engine

Explains why a stock may have moved by connecting price action with fundamentals, expectations, valuation and market conditions.

The Price Engine helps users understand stock price movements in plain English. It focuses on possible drivers such as earnings, outlook changes, valuation pressure, macro data and investor sentiment.

Helps answer

Why did the stock move?

05What is already priced in

Expectations

Estimates what future performance the market may already be expecting from the current stock price.

The Expectations module compares current valuation with the company's likely growth, margins and earnings power. This helps users see whether expectations look reasonable, demanding or pessimistic.

Helps answer

Is the market expecting too much or too little?

06Market regime and macro pressure

Macro

Measures the broader market environment using indicators such as volatility, yields, credit spreads and macro stress.

Macro matters because the same stock valuation can mean different things in different regimes. A high-rate, high-volatility market usually treats valuations differently than a calm, supportive market.

Helps answer

Is the macro backdrop supportive or restrictive?

07Historical returns and volatility

Statistics

Shows historical price behavior, returns, volatility and statistical context for individual stocks.

Statistics helps users understand how a stock has behaved historically. It adds context around drawdowns, volatility, return patterns and risk characteristics.

Helps answer

How has the stock behaved historically?

08Investor risk appetite

Sentiment

Measures market mood and investor risk appetite using signals such as volatility, credit conditions, momentum and sentiment indicators.

Sentiment helps users understand whether investors are currently optimistic, fearful or somewhere in between. This is useful because valuation alone does not explain short-term market behavior.

Helps answer

Is the market currently risk-seeking or risk-averse?

09Portfolio context

Portfolio

Helps users view their holdings through the same Theo Capital framework used for individual stock analysis.

Portfolio connects individual stock analysis to the user's broader holdings. It helps identify concentration, valuation exposure, risk clusters and the overall quality of a portfolio setup.

Helps answer

What does this mean for my overall portfolio?

What Theo Capital is designed to do

Explain

Translate valuation, fundamentals, macro and sentiment into plain English.

Compare

Show whether price, fair value, outlook and expectations are aligned.

Contextualize

Put a stock into a broader market and portfolio context.

Theo Capital does not tell users what to buy. It helps users understand what the market may already be pricing in.

Analyze a stock