Macro Shock Simulator

Enter a macro data release and see the likely chain reaction — how it shifts Fed expectations, bond yields, the dollar, and which sectors win or lose.

How the Macro Shock Simulator works

The simulator takes any of 17 macro data releases — including Nonfarm Payrolls, CPI, Core PCE, ISM Manufacturing PMI, initial jobless claims, 10-year Treasury yield, VIX, and the US dollar index — and calculates the likely chain reaction from actual versus consensus. It scores the surprise, classifies the market regime (risk-on growth, inflation shock, growth slowdown, recession risk, and others), and outputs the expected direction for Fed policy, bond yields, the US dollar, broad equities, the Nasdaq, and 11 individual sectors.

Why macro surprises move markets

Markets are priced on consensus expectations. When actual data deviates from that consensus, it forces a repricing — not just of the data point itself, but of everything downstream. A stronger-than-expected jobs report raises the probability of a Fed rate hike, which pushes bond yields higher, strengthens the dollar, and compresses valuations for long-duration growth stocks. The Macro Shock Simulator makes this transmission chain explicit, step by step.

Example

Select Core CPI, set actual to 3.5% versus expected 3.2%, and run the simulation. The engine will classify the surprise as inflationary, shift Fed expectations hawkish, push bond yields up, strengthen the dollar, and flag growth stocks and rate-sensitive sectors as under pressure — while identifying defensive and commodity sectors that may benefit.

Disclaimer: Theo Capital provides educational analysis only. Macro impact assessments are model-generated estimates based on historical patterns and do not guarantee actual market outcomes. This tool does not constitute investment advice.