Why a stock trades where it trades
Most stock analysis tools answer one question: is this stock cheap or expensive? That's useful, but it's only half the picture. Price is also a bet — about growth, about margins, about how the next five years play out. Theo Capital's Stock Price Engine pulls those bets apart so you can see what the market is actually pricing in, and decide whether you agree.
What the engine measures
Five layers of evidence, each one independent. None is a forecast. Together they describe the assumptions a current price is making — and how confident the market seems to be about them.
Valuation premium
How far the current price sits above (or below) the stock's own 5-year normal multiples. A 40% premium says the market is paying for something materially better than the stock's usual story.
Fundamental support
Whether revenue, margins, and free cash flow are actually moving in a direction that justifies today's price. Strong fundamentals support a high multiple. Weak fundamentals don't.
Expectation pressure
What growth rate is already baked into the price. If a stock needs 25% revenue growth forever to justify its multiple, the bar is high — and any disappointment becomes expensive.
Trend, momentum, volume, drawdown
How the price is moving and whether the move is convicted. A breakout on heavy volume tells a different story than a slow drift higher on thin volume.
Statistical direction
When this exact setup — trend, momentum, volatility, and volume — happened before, what usually came next? This is statistical evidence from the stock's own history, not a forecast.
Try it on any stock
Free. No login. Enter a ticker and see the full decomposition — valuation premium, fundamental support, momentum, trend, volume confirmation, drawdown, and statistical direction.